AFL · ROUND 23 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Carlton
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 19
CAR to win, 77% chance
WB 23%77% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 19.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Richards | R | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 55% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 86 | 70 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 80% | 65% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 114 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 45% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Lachie Jaques | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Jordan Croft | FPR | 53 | 39 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Lachlan Carmichael | BPR | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Louis Emmett | CHF | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 72% | 60% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 114 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 53% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 107 |
| George Hewett | RR | 99 | 83 to 115 | 60 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 51% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 138 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 95 | 80 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 134 | 88% | 76% | 60% | 43% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 125 |
| Jagga Smith | INT | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Billy Wilson | BPR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 83 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 60% | 39% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Blake Acres | INT | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 126 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 116 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 76 | 61 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Matthew Cottrell | WL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 72 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Mitch McGovern | HBFL | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 68 | 53 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |