AFL · ROUND 23 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Carlton
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 19
CAR to win, 77% chance
WB 23%77% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 19.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 77% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 33% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 46% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 35% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 38% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Louis Emmett | CHF | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 27% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Carmichael | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 63% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 63% | 34% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 61% | 31% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 55% | 28% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | HBFL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| George Hewett | RR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 33% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Acres | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jagga Smith | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |