AFL · ROUND 23 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Carlton
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 19
CAR to win, 77% chance
WB 23%77% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 19.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 10.0 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 33% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 4.7 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 61% | 44% | 27% | 17% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 58% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 46% | 27% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 59% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 42% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 48% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 41% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 43% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 30% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan Carmichael | BPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Louis Emmett | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Haynes | INT | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.0 to 11.3 | 83% | 71% | 56% | 44% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.9 | 81% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 72% | 55% | 39% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 67% | 51% | 36% | 24% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Blake Acres | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 63% | 46% | 34% | 22% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 62% | 46% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 63% | 45% | 31% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 57% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 55% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Billy Wilson | BPR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 48% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 45% | 30% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | HBFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 43% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| George Hewett | RR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 25% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 27% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | WL | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jagga Smith | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |