AFL · ROUND 24 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v GWS GIANTS
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 13
ADE to win, 69% chance
ADE 69%31% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 56
HIT Actual margin 56 · 43.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 27.8 | 23.7 to 32.0 | 17.2 to 38.4 | 96% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 27.4 | 23.2 to 31.5 | 16.8 to 37.9 | 95% | 87% | 65% | 32% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 26.6 | 22.5 to 30.6 | 16.2 to 37.0 | 95% | 85% | 61% | 26% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | 24.6 | 20.7 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 20.4 | 16.7 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 18.2 | 14.7 to 21.7 | 9.3 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 17.9 | 14.4 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 17.1 | 13.8 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.8 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 17.1 | 13.8 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.8 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | HFFL | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | INT | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.4 | 45% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 13.0 | 9.9 to 16.0 | 5.2 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 28.2 | 24.0 to 32.3 | 17.5 to 38.8 | 96% | 89% | 70% | 38% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 28.1 | 23.9 to 32.3 | 17.5 to 38.8 | 96% | 89% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 28.0 | 23.8 to 32.1 | 17.4 to 38.6 | 96% | 89% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Toby Greene | R | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 19.3 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFR | 18.5 | 15.0 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 18.3 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Harry Rowston | RR | 18.1 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.9 | 72% | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 17.2 | 13.8 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.8 | 66% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Joe Fonti | BPR | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 16.7 | 13.3 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Josaia Delana | CHF | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Callum Brown | HFFL | 10.4 | 7.6 to 13.2 | 3.3 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 10.2 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |