AFL · ROUND 24 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v GWS GIANTS
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 13
ADE to win, 69% chance
ADE 69%31% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 56
HIT Actual margin 56 · 43.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Izak Rankine | RR | 109 | 93 to 126 | 68 to 150 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 50% | inside our 90% range: 129 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 107 | 90 to 123 | 66 to 147 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 61% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 107 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 79% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Sam Berry | R | 92 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Luke Nankervis | HFFL | 71 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 70 | 56 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 114 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Isaac Cumming | INT | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 108 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| James Borlase | FB | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 83% | 68% | 57% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 103 | 87 to 119 | 62 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 94 | 78 to 110 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Toby Greene | R | 85 | 70 to 100 | 47 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFR | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Harry Rowston | RR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Joe Fonti | BPR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Callum Brown | HFFL | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Josaia Delana | CHF | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 39 | 26 to 52 | 6 to 72 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |