AFL · ROUND 24 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v GWS GIANTS
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 13
ADE to win, 69% chance
ADE 69%31% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 56
HIT Actual margin 56 · 43.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 66% | 42% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 65% | 41% | 22% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 61% | 38% | 19% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 58% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 46% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 24% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.9 | 73% | 50% | 29% | 14% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 64% | 40% | 22% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Brown | HFFL | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 48% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 51% | 24% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Greene | R | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 49% | 24% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 30% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josaia Delana | CHF | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 22% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Rowston | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |