AFL · ROUND 24 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v GWS GIANTS
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 13
ADE to win, 69% chance
ADE 69%31% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 56
HIT Actual margin 56 · 43.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 31% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 69% | 58% | 43% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 54% | 39% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 52% | 32% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 51% | 38% | 26% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 47% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 47% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 35% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 44% | 30% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 21% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Idun | BPL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 37% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 10.0 | 73% | 60% | 45% | 33% | 22% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | BPR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.2 to 9.6 | 71% | 54% | 39% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 42% | 29% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 33% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Toby Greene | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 35% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 25% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Brown | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Rowston | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josaia Delana | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 1.4 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |