AFL · ROUND 24 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Fremantle
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 6
CAR to win, 59% chance
CAR 59%41% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 31.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 29.5 | 25.3 to 33.8 | 18.7 to 40.4 | 97% | 91% | 76% | 48% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 27.0 | 22.9 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 26.4 | 22.4 to 30.5 | 16.1 to 36.8 | 95% | 85% | 60% | 24% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 25.8 | 21.8 to 29.8 | 15.6 to 36.1 | 98% | 88% | 63% | 30% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.5 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Billy Wilson | WR | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.5 | 12.9 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.1 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 64% | 31% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPR | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.6 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 61% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | BPR | 14.5 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 12.9 | 9.9 to 16.0 | 5.2 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | CHF | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.3 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 10.2 | 7.5 to 12.9 | 3.2 to 17.2 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.1 | 21.2 to 29.1 | 15.0 to 35.3 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.7 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.7 | 17.9 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 64% | 31% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 20.6 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.2 to 29.9 | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 18.1 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.9 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 72% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bailey Banfield | INT | 14.1 | 10.9 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 41% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | FPR | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tobyn Murray | INT | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | HFFR | 9.3 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.9 | 5.4 to 10.4 | 1.5 to 14.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |