AFL · ROUND 24 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Fremantle
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 6
CAR to win, 59% chance
CAR 59%41% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 31.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 147 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 60% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 53% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| George Hewett | INT | 96 | 80 to 112 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 134 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 43% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 59% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 92 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Billy Wilson | WR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Cooper Lord | FPR | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 50% | 36% | 20% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jacob Weitering | BPR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Brodie Kemp | CHF | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 59 | 45 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 95 | 79 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 89 | 73 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Hayden Young | R | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 53% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Bailey Banfield | INT | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4 |
| Isaiah Dudley | FPR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Christopher Scerri | HFFR | 49 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Tobyn Murray | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |