AFL · ROUND 24 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Fremantle
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 6
CAR to win, 59% chance
CAR 59%41% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 31.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Kemp | CHF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 67% | 37% | 15% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 63% | 34% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 47% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 48% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 27% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Treacy | FF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 69% | 46% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | FPR | 1.3 | 0.6 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 63% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 65% | 34% | 14% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 53% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tobyn Murray | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Banfield | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |