AFL · ROUND 24 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Fremantle
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 6
CAR to win, 59% chance
CAR 59%41% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 31.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Weitering | BPR | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.1 | 82% | 69% | 55% | 41% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 51% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 74% | 57% | 41% | 30% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 49% | 35% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 47% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 60% | 43% | 26% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Billy Wilson | WR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 56% | 41% | 25% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | CHF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 61% | 45% | 31% | 20% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 42% | 29% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 43% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 45% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 42% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 41% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 43% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 34% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 29% | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 76% | 62% | 48% | 34% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 75% | 61% | 47% | 32% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 4.7 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 52% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 60% | 43% | 26% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 45% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 41% | 26% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 55% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Banfield | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 48% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 43% | 26% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 39% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 38% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 35% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 31% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tobyn Murray | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |