AFL · ROUND 24 · MCG
Collingwood v Brisbane Lions
Fri 21 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 10
BRI to win, 65% chance
COL 35%65% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 53.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 30.1 | 25.8 to 34.4 | 19.1 to 41.0 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 51% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 28.0 | 23.8 to 32.1 | 17.4 to 38.6 | 96% | 89% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | C | 22.1 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.3 | 12.1 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.3 | 12.1 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.3 | 10.6 to 28.9 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jack Crisp | HBFR | 19.1 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 18.2 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.8 to 26.2 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 17.2 | 13.9 to 20.6 | 8.6 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 16.8 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | INT | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 11.2 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Angus Anderson | HFFL | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Liam Puncher | BPR | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.2 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie West | FF | 7.7 | 5.3 to 10.2 | 1.4 to 14.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.5 | 24.3 to 32.7 | 17.8 to 39.2 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 39% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 27.2 | 23.1 to 31.3 | 16.7 to 37.7 | 95% | 87% | 65% | 31% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 26.2 | 22.2 to 30.3 | 15.9 to 36.6 | 95% | 83% | 58% | 24% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.2 | 12.7 to 32.1 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 22.3 | 18.6 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 22.2 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 20.9 | 17.3 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.8 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 83% | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.6 | 7.8 to 24.8 | 61% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 14.8 | 11.7 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 13.1 | 10.0 to 16.1 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.2 to 20.5 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ty Gallop | INT | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.3 | 2.7 to 16.5 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 8.5 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 1.9 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |