AFL · ROUND 24 · MCG
Collingwood v Brisbane Lions
Fri 21 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 10
BRI to win, 65% chance
COL 35%65% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 53.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 113 | 97 to 130 | 72 to 154 | 96% | 91% | 82% | 68% | 57% | outside our 90% range: 69 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 107 | 91 to 124 | 67 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 75% | 62% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 101 | 85 to 118 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Jordan De Goey | C | 87 | 72 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 78% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Jack Crisp | HBFR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 43% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Ned Long | INT | 72 | 57 to 86 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 71 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 34 |
| Lachie Schultz | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 45% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Angus Anderson | HFFL | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Liam Puncher | BPR | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Charlie West | FF | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| William Hayes | INT | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 111 | 95 to 128 | 70 to 152 | 95% | 89% | 80% | 66% | 54% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 107 | 91 to 124 | 67 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 75% | 62% | 47% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 105 | 89 to 122 | 65 to 146 | 92% | 86% | 72% | 59% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 145 | 91% | 84% | 70% | 58% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 81 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 120 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 81 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 122 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 33 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Ty Gallop | INT | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 87 | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |