AFL · ROUND 24 · MCG
Collingwood v Brisbane Lions
Fri 21 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 10
BRI to win, 65% chance
COL 35%65% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 53.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 61% | 38% | 19% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 69% | 39% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 42% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Anderson | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 37% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 54% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie West | FF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 32% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 27% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 33% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 28% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 35% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 24% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Puncher | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | CHF | 2.5 | 1.6 to 3.4 | 0.4 to 4.7 | 83% | 59% | 36% | 21% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.9 | 73% | 50% | 28% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.8 | 71% | 47% | 27% | 13% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 44% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 52% | 26% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 60% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 38% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 33% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 37% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |