AFL · ROUND 24 · MCG
Collingwood v Brisbane Lions
Fri 21 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 10
BRI to win, 65% chance
COL 35%65% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 53.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 67% | 55% | 41% | 28% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 5.3 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 65% | 48% | 34% | 23% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 65% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 4.7 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 62% | 45% | 27% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 47% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Crisp | HBFR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 41% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 46% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 49% | 34% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 50% | 30% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 38% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 29% | 19% | 11% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 35% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie West | FF | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Puncher | BPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 17% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.2 to 11.6 | 84% | 72% | 58% | 45% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 31% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 75% | 61% | 47% | 32% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 74% | 56% | 40% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 72% | 54% | 38% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 59% | 43% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ty Gallop | INT | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 59% | 43% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 57% | 41% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 59% | 43% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.7 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 54% | 37% | 23% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 48% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |