AFL · ROUND 24 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
PA by 11
PA to win, 67% chance
ESS 33%67% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 1.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 29.2 | 25.0 to 33.4 | 18.4 to 40.0 | 97% | 90% | 75% | 45% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 28.9 | 24.7 to 33.1 | 18.1 to 39.7 | 97% | 89% | 73% | 42% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Will Setterfield | C | 26.2 | 22.2 to 30.3 | 15.9 to 36.6 | 95% | 83% | 58% | 24% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 24.1 | 20.2 to 28.0 | 14.1 to 34.1 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | - |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 23.1 | 19.2 to 26.9 | 13.3 to 32.9 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Mason Redman | BPR | 22.2 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.6 to 31.8 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.1 | 11.9 to 30.9 | 88% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.8 to 30.7 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 19.6 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 83% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 9.9 to 28.0 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 16.6 | 13.3 to 19.9 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | HBFR | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 14.9 | 11.8 to 18.1 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 14.3 | 11.2 to 17.4 | 6.3 to 22.3 | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WR | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.3 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.5 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 26.3 | 22.3 to 30.4 | 16.0 to 36.7 | 95% | 84% | 59% | 24% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Ollie Wines | C | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.0 | 15.7 to 36.3 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | BPR | 24.9 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.8 to 35.0 | 97% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Will Brodie | INT | 23.7 | 19.9 to 27.6 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Joe Richards | HFFR | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.2 to 32.7 | 92% | 72% | 38% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Miles Bergman | RR | 21.9 | 18.1 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.4 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 12% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 65% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Joe Berry | R | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WL | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 49% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Christian Moraes | INT | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 47% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | FF | 13.2 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | HBFL | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.0 | 5.3 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Alex Van Wyk | INT | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Dante Visentini | CHB | 10.3 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Xavier Walsh | INT | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FPR | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |