AFL · ROUND 24 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
PA by 11
PA to win, 67% chance
ESS 33%67% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 1.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 110 | 93 to 126 | 69 to 150 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 123 |
| Will Setterfield | C | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 59% | 43% | inside our 90% range: 141 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 104 | 88 to 121 | 64 to 145 | 91% | 85% | 71% | 58% | 42% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 43% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 39% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Mason Redman | BPR | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 43 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 83 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 121 | 78% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | - |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 120 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 68% | 50% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Angus Clarke | WR | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Jaxon Artemis | HBFR | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 94 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 20 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 110 | 94 to 126 | 69 to 151 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | inside our 90% range: 137 |
| Joe Richards | HFFR | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Miles Bergman | RR | 96 | 80 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | BPR | 94 | 78 to 109 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Ollie Wines | C | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 90 | 75 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 53% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Will Brodie | INT | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Mitch Georgiades | FF | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 67% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 76 | 60 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 28% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Joe Berry | R | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | - |
| Jacob Wehr | WL | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Balyn O'Brien | HBFL | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 16 |
| Dante Visentini | CHB | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Jack Whitlock | FPR | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Christian Moraes | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Alex Van Wyk | INT | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 45 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Xavier Walsh | INT | 43 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |