AFL · ROUND 24 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
PA by 11
PA to win, 67% chance
ESS 33%67% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 1.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 75% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 34% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 41% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Will Setterfield | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mason Redman | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | FF | 2.9 | 2.0 to 3.9 | 0.6 to 5.2 | 85% | 60% | 47% | 30% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 53% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 53% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Richards | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 44% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 44% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 47% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Van Wyk | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Berry | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier Walsh | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Christian Moraes | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Miles Bergman | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ollie Wines | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Will Brodie | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Balyn O'Brien | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |