AFL · ROUND 24 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
PA by 11
PA to win, 67% chance
ESS 33%67% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 1.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Reid | FB | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 35% | 23% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Mason Redman | BPR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 74% | 57% | 41% | 30% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 67% | 50% | 36% | 24% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 5.3 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 65% | 47% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 65% | 47% | 32% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 59% | 42% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 53% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 48% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Will Setterfield | C | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 49% | 34% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 3% | - |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | - |
| Jaxon Artemis | HBFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 27% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | FF | 6.6 | 4.5 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 82% | 70% | 55% | 42% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Miles Bergman | RR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 67% | 56% | 41% | 28% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | BPR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 66% | 54% | 39% | 26% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 74% | 58% | 42% | 30% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 59% | 42% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Richards | HFFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 52% | 35% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ollie Wines | C | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 45% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FPR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 52% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 43% | 29% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dante Visentini | CHB | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 40% | 28% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | - |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 43% | 27% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | - |
| Joe Berry | R | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | HBFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 24% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier Walsh | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | - |
| Christian Moraes | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Van Wyk | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Brodie | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |