AFL · ROUND 24 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Richmond
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 7:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 45
GEE to win, 94% chance
GEE 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 57
HIT Actual margin 57 · 12.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 31.1 | 26.7 to 35.4 | 19.9 to 42.2 | 98% | 93% | 81% | 57% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 40.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 25.2 | 21.2 to 29.1 | 15.0 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 23.6 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.7 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.6 | 92% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 20.5 | 16.9 to 24.1 | 11.2 to 29.8 | 85% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 19.5 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.6 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | HFFR | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 17.0 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.2 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPR | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 15.7 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPR | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.0 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Brad Close | WR | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | INT | 9.3 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 26.7 | 22.6 to 30.8 | 16.3 to 37.1 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 26% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 25.4 | 21.4 to 29.3 | 15.2 to 35.6 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Jayden Short | INT | 22.6 | 18.9 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.5 | 87% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 20.6 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.2 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 10.9 to 29.5 | 84% | 53% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tom Brown | HBFR | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 18.5 | 15.0 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPL | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 14.8 | 11.7 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Taj Hotton | R | 14.8 | 11.7 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Judson Clarke | WR | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sam Grlj | FF | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 12.7 | 9.8 to 15.7 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Steely Green | CHF | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 9.5 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 9.3 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 8.6 | 6.0 to 11.1 | 2.0 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |