AFL · ROUND 24 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Richmond
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 7:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 45
GEE to win, 94% chance
GEE 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 57
HIT Actual margin 57 · 12.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 111 | 94 to 127 | 70 to 151 | 95% | 89% | 79% | 65% | 52% | outside our 90% range: 159 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 95 | 79 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 41% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 33% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Shaun Mannagh | HFFR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 139 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 76 | 61 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 74 | 59 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPR | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Brad Close | WR | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | INT | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 134 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 84% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Jayden Short | INT | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Tom Brown | HBFR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 34 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 12 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Taj Hotton | R | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 29% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Luke Trainor | BPL | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 59 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Sam Grlj | FF | 57 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Judson Clarke | WR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Steely Green | CHF | 56 | 41 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 43 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |