AFL · ROUND 24 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Richmond
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 7:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 45
GEE to win, 94% chance
GEE 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 57
HIT Actual margin 57 · 12.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.3 | 1.4 to 3.2 | 0.2 to 4.3 | 80% | 56% | 34% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 77% | 54% | 32% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.9 | 71% | 47% | 28% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 65% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 56% | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 57% | 30% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | INT | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 53% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brad Close | WR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 67% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 43% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 33% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 47% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 36% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Steely Green | CHF | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Judson Clarke | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | FF | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Taj Hotton | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |