AFL · ROUND 24 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Richmond
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 7:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 45
GEE to win, 94% chance
GEE 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 57
HIT Actual margin 57 · 12.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 37% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 77% | 63% | 50% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 66% | 54% | 40% | 26% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 5.3 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 64% | 47% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 68% | 50% | 35% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 51% | 36% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 55% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 32% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 52% | 35% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPR | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 39% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 35% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brad Close | WR | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Miller | FB | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 42% | 29% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jayden Short | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 48% | 35% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Brown | HBFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 36% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 38% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 44% | 30% | 19% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 31% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 35% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 34% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Steely Green | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Grlj | FF | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Judson Clarke | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Taj Hotton | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |