AFL · ROUND 24 · MCG
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 21
MEL to win, 79% chance
MEL 79%21% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 21
MISS Actual margin 21 · 42.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 27.3 | 23.2 to 31.4 | 16.8 to 37.8 | 95% | 87% | 65% | 32% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.1 | 15.7 to 36.4 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 25.8 | 21.8 to 29.8 | 15.5 to 36.1 | 98% | 88% | 62% | 29% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 25.2 | 21.3 to 29.2 | 15.1 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 24.7 | 20.8 to 28.7 | 14.7 to 34.8 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 22% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 23.5 | 19.6 to 27.3 | 13.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Christian Salem | HBFL | 20.5 | 16.8 to 24.1 | 11.1 to 29.8 | 85% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.7 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | FPL | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.4 | 10.6 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 18.5 | 15.0 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | FF | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.8 to 26.2 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 17.0 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 14.1 | 10.9 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 41% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | INT | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 27.5 | 23.4 to 31.6 | 17.0 to 38.1 | 95% | 88% | 67% | 33% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 26.3 | 22.2 to 30.3 | 15.9 to 36.6 | 95% | 84% | 58% | 24% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | FF | 24.8 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.7 to 34.9 | 97% | 85% | 56% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WL | 23.3 | 19.4 to 27.1 | 13.4 to 33.1 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 22.1 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.4 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.9 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Connor Budarick | BPR | 18.2 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 73% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 17.1 | 13.8 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.8 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 22.0 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Davidson | FPR | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | CHF | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Lachlan Carmichael | INT | 10.2 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.2 to 17.2 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |