AFL · ROUND 24 · MCG
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 21
MEL to win, 79% chance
MEL 79%21% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 21
MISS Actual margin 21 · 42.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 114 | 97 to 130 | 73 to 155 | 96% | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | inside our 90% range: 148 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 60% | 45% | outside our 90% range: 56 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 104 | 87 to 120 | 63 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 103 | 87 to 120 | 63 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | FPL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 78% | 59% | 39% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 83 | 67 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Christian Salem | HBFL | 81 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 41 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Xavier Lindsay | FF | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 13 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 114 | 58% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 74 | 59 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 31 |
| Bayley Fritsch | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 123 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Ed Richards | R | 98 | 82 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | FF | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 86% | 75% | 57% | 39% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 121 |
| Bailey Williams | WL | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 43 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Connor Budarick | BPR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 20% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Sam Davidson | FPR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Aaron Naughton | CHF | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 59 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 56 | 42 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 44 | 31 to 58 | 10 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 43 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Lachlan Carmichael | INT | 43 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |