AFL · ROUND 24 · MCG
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 21
MEL to win, 79% chance
MEL 79%21% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 21
MISS Actual margin 21 · 42.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayley Fritsch | INT | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 70% | 39% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 58% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 60% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 48% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 54% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 31% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 54% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 38% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | FF | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | FPL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Salem | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | CHF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 77% | 54% | 31% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | FF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 23% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 47% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Davidson | FPR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Carmichael | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Budarick | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |