AFL · ROUND 24 · MCG
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 21
MEL to win, 79% chance
MEL 79%21% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 21
MISS Actual margin 21 · 42.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 77% | 63% | 49% | 34% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 67% | 55% | 40% | 27% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 54% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 59% | 42% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 51% | 38% | 26% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 59% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | FPL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 53% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 45% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Christian Salem | HBFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 48% | 29% | 16% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | FF | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 36% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 30% | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 21% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Williams | WL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 72% | 54% | 37% | 26% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 63% | 46% | 31% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 59% | 43% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | CHF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 49% | 29% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Connor Budarick | BPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 50% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 26% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 50% | 31% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 48% | 29% | 16% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | FF | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Davidson | FPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 40% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Carmichael | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |