AFL · ROUND 24 · MCG
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 21
MEL to win, 79% chance
MEL 79%21% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 21
MISS Actual margin 21 · 42.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Sparrow | C | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.7 to 9.9 | 85% | 74% | 61% | 49% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 75% | 60% | 44% | 30% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 66% | 50% | 34% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.7 | 66% | 50% | 34% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 65% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Christian Salem | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | FPL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 66% | 50% | 34% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 61% | 42% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 43% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | FF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 21% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 37% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 37% | 20% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Davidson | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 37% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 34% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lachlan Carmichael | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Budarick | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |