AFL · ROUND 24 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Gold Coast SUNS
Thu 20 Aug 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
STK by 13
STK to win, 69% chance
STK 69%31% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 36.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Hill | HFFR | 27.8 | 23.7 to 32.0 | 17.2 to 38.5 | 96% | 88% | 69% | 36% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 42.0 |
| Max Hall | R | 26.7 | 22.7 to 30.8 | 16.3 to 37.2 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 27% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 37.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 26.5 | 22.5 to 30.6 | 16.1 to 36.9 | 95% | 85% | 60% | 25% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 23.6 | 19.8 to 27.5 | 13.7 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 15% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | CHB | 23.4 | 19.6 to 27.2 | 13.5 to 33.2 | 94% | 75% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 22.2 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 21.5 | 17.8 to 25.2 | 12.0 to 31.0 | 89% | 63% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFR | 19.6 | 16.0 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.7 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FF | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.1 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HFFL | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WR | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 70% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 14.7 | 11.6 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Mitch Owens | C | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dan Butler | FPR | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFL | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Dougal Howard | BPR | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FPL | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.3 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | RR | 28.1 | 24.0 to 32.3 | 17.5 to 38.8 | 96% | 89% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Noah Anderson | R | 27.7 | 23.6 to 31.8 | 17.1 to 38.3 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 34% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 37.0 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 26.3 | 22.3 to 30.3 | 15.9 to 36.6 | 95% | 84% | 58% | 24% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 42.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 23.7 | 19.8 to 27.5 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 16% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 40.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 23.6 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.7 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 15% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 18.2 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Mac Andrew | CHB | 18.1 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 72% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | WR | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.6 | 7.8 to 24.8 | 61% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | BPL | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.6 | 7.8 to 24.8 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | C | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 53% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Nick Holman | WL | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.5 | 4.3 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | FF | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ethan Read | CHF | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | FB | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ben Long | FPL | 10.1 | 7.3 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 8.8 | 6.2 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ben King | INT | 8.2 | 5.7 to 10.7 | 1.7 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |