AFL · ROUND 24 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Gold Coast SUNS
Thu 20 Aug 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
STK by 13
STK to win, 69% chance
STK 69%31% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 36.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Hall | R | 108 | 91 to 124 | 67 to 148 | 94% | 87% | 75% | 62% | 48% | inside our 90% range: 134 |
| Bradley Hill | HFFR | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 133 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 120 |
| Rowan Marshall | FF | 93 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Marcus Windhager | CHB | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 80% | 66% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 40 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HFFL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Mitch Owens | C | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Cooper Sharman | FPL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Dan Butler | FPR | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFL | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Dougal Howard | BPR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 9 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | RR | 114 | 97 to 130 | 73 to 155 | 96% | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | inside our 50% range: 114 |
| Noah Anderson | R | 107 | 91 to 123 | 66 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 74% | 61% | 47% | inside our 90% range: 127 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 68% | 56% | 39% | outside our 90% range: 153 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 95 | 79 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 142 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Mac Andrew | CHB | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Bailey Humphrey | C | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Joel Jeffrey | BPL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Jarrod Witts | FF | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Beau Addinsall | WR | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Ethan Read | CHF | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Ben Long | FPL | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 59 | 45 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Nick Holman | WL | 59 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Ben King | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Charlie Ballard | FB | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 49 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |