AFL · ROUND 24 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Gold Coast SUNS
Thu 20 Aug 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
STK by 13
STK to win, 69% chance
STK 69%31% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 36.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 80% | 68% | 56% | 43% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 72% | 55% | 40% | 27% | 19% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 72% | 55% | 40% | 27% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Hall | R | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 63% | 47% | 32% | 23% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Dan Butler | FPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 62% | 41% | 24% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 51% | 31% | 19% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 58% | 36% | 19% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch Owens | C | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FPL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dougal Howard | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | RR | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.7 | 2.3 to 11.1 | 90% | 81% | 70% | 58% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Noah Anderson | R | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 68% | 55% | 36% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 63% | 44% | 29% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | C | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Holman | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 30% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | WR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Long | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ethan Read | CHF | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mac Andrew | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben King | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |