AFL · ROUND 24 · SCG
Sydney Swans v North Melbourne
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 29
SYD to win, 86% chance
SYD 86%14% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 23.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 30.4 | 26.1 to 34.7 | 19.4 to 41.4 | 98% | 92% | 80% | 54% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 41.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 25.1 | 21.2 to 29.1 | 15.0 to 35.3 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | R | 23.4 | 19.6 to 27.3 | 13.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 85% | 55% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 19.1 | 15.5 to 22.6 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 77% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 17.9 | 14.4 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 17.0 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 14.8 | 11.7 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Corey Warner | INT | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 12.0 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 10.2 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Patrick Snell | INT | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| William Green | INT | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 26.3 | 22.3 to 30.4 | 16.0 to 36.7 | 95% | 85% | 59% | 24% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.0 | 15.7 to 36.3 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 25.7 | 21.7 to 29.7 | 15.4 to 36.0 | 98% | 88% | 61% | 27% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 24.9 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.8 to 35.0 | 97% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | R | 23.9 | 20.1 to 27.8 | 14.0 to 33.9 | 97% | 82% | 50% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | WL | 22.0 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.3 | 12.1 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 18.3 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 17.9 | 14.5 to 21.4 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 71% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Josh Goater | INT | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.7 | 5.7 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.3 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Griffin Logue | INT | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Zac Banch | HFFR | 11.2 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Griffin | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 8.4 | 5.9 to 10.9 | 1.9 to 14.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |