AFL · ROUND 24 · SCG
Sydney Swans v North Melbourne
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 29
SYD to win, 86% chance
SYD 86%14% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 23.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 110 | 93 to 126 | 69 to 150 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | inside our 90% range: 135 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Angus Sheldrick | R | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 39% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 41 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 72 | 57 to 86 | 35 to 108 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 105 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 54 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Corey Warner | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 51 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 50 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Patrick Snell | INT | 41 | 28 to 54 | 8 to 74 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| William Green | INT | 40 | 27 to 53 | 7 to 73 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 98 | 82 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 54 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 96 | 81 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 93 | 78 to 109 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Jy Simpkin | R | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 52% | 33% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | WL | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 94 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 59 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Zac Banch | HFFR | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Griffin Logue | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Oliver Griffin | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |