AFL · ROUND 24 · SCG
Sydney Swans v North Melbourne
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 29
SYD to win, 86% chance
SYD 86%14% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 23.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.9 | 1.9 to 3.9 | 0.6 to 5.2 | 84% | 60% | 47% | 30% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 77% | 54% | 31% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 60% | 38% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 54% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 42% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 33% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 49% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Corey Warner | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Errol Gulden | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Snell | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| William Green | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 75% | 52% | 30% | 15% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 65% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 52% | 25% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Banch | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | R | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 24% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Griffin | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 26% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Griffin Logue | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |