AFL · ROUND 24 · SCG
Sydney Swans v North Melbourne
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 29
SYD to win, 86% chance
SYD 86%14% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 23.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | FB | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.0 | 82% | 69% | 55% | 41% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 59% | 43% | 30% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 54% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 47% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 41% | 26% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 48% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 44% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 41% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 31% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 24% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Corey Warner | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 23% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Snell | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| William Green | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | R | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Parker | BPR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 69% | 57% | 43% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 62% | 45% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 54% | 37% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 47% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 48% | 32% | 22% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 47% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | R | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 38% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Griffin Logue | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 42% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 43% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 41% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 39% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 39% | 24% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 31% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 34% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | - |
| Finn O'Sullivan | WL | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 31% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Banch | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Griffin | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |