AFL · ROUND 24 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 5:20pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 30
HAW to win, 87% chance
WCE 13%87% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 32.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 27.9 | 23.8 to 32.0 | 17.3 to 38.5 | 96% | 88% | 69% | 37% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Tim Kelly | C | 26.8 | 22.7 to 30.9 | 16.4 to 37.2 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 27% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 25.7 | 21.7 to 29.7 | 15.4 to 35.9 | 98% | 88% | 61% | 27% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFR | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Graham | WL | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.9 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | R | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.3 | 10.6 to 28.9 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 19.3 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.2 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Liam Duggan | WR | 19.1 | 15.5 to 22.6 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 77% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Willem Duursma | HFFR | 17.8 | 14.4 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFL | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 72% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 15.6 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPL | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.1 | 51% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 14.5 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.8 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tom Gross | HFFL | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 27.7 | 23.6 to 31.9 | 17.1 to 38.3 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 25.9 | 21.9 to 29.9 | 15.6 to 36.1 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 24.6 | 20.7 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 22.2 | 18.4 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.8 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.8 to 30.7 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Will Day | C | 21.3 | 17.7 to 25.0 | 11.9 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 21.0 | 17.3 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.4 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 20.7 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.2 | 11.3 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 53% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 18.3 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 17.3 | 14.0 to 20.7 | 8.7 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Josh Weddle | CHB | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.2 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | WL | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.2 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 10.2 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.1 to 17.2 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Max Beattie | HFFR | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Calsher Dear | INT | 8.8 | 6.2 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.3 | 1.5 to 14.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |