AFL · ROUND 24 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 5:20pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 30
HAW to win, 87% chance
WCE 13%87% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 32.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 86% | 75% | 60% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Tim Kelly | C | 93 | 78 to 109 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 38% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Jack Graham | WL | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Elliot Yeo | R | 84 | 69 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFR | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Liam Duggan | WR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | - |
| Willem Duursma | HFFR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | - |
| Liam Baker | HBFL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 13 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 102 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Tom Gross | HFFL | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 51 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 50 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 137 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 83 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 60% | 39% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Will Day | C | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 43 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Josh Weddle | CHB | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Bailey Macdonald | WL | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Calsher Dear | INT | 50 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Max Beattie | HFFR | 49 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 43 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |