AFL · ROUND 24 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 5:20pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 30
HAW to win, 87% chance
WCE 13%87% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 32.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 60% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 31% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 23% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 34% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Gross | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 31% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Graham | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Duggan | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tim Kelly | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 2.9 | 2.0 to 3.9 | 0.6 to 5.3 | 85% | 60% | 47% | 30% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 57% | 34% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 69% | 46% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 64% | 40% | 22% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 57% | 30% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Calsher Dear | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 54% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Max Beattie | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 35% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Day | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Bailey Macdonald | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |