AFL · ROUND 24 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 5:20pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 30
HAW to win, 87% chance
WCE 13%87% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 32.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 61% | 47% | 35% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Duggan | WR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 66% | 54% | 40% | 27% | 20% | - |
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 66% | 54% | 40% | 27% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.2 to 9.6 | 71% | 54% | 39% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 55% | 39% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 45% | 30% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 51% | 35% | 23% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 42% | 27% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 5% | - |
| Tim Kelly | C | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFR | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 31% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | - |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Graham | WL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Gross | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 50% | 35% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 74% | 61% | 47% | 31% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 51% | 38% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 67% | 55% | 41% | 28% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Weddle | CHB | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 65% | 48% | 33% | 22% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 54% | 39% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 47% | 28% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 46% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 48% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 51% | 35% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 42% | 27% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 33% | 18% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Calsher Dear | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | - |
| Sam Butler | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | - |
| Will Day | C | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 20% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Beattie | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |