AFL · WILDCARD FINALS · MCG
Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 2
MEL to win, 52% chance
MEL 52%48% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 19
MISS Actual margin 19 · 20.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 25.7 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 93 / inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 23.8 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 87 / inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 23.2 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.7 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 91 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 22.8 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 92 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 22.1 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 106 / inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Jack Viney | C | 21.7 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 6.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 91 / inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 21.5 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 20.7 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 20.0 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Ed Langdon | HBFR | 18.5 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 16.3 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 15.4 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Caleb Windsor | WL | 15.1 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 15.0 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 14.7 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Xavier Lindsay | INT | 14.4 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 52 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPL | 13.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / outside our 90% range: 20 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 12.7 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FF | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 11.5 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 11.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 70 / outside our 90% range: 34 |
| Xavier Taylor | INT | 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 45 / outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Jake Melksham | CHF | 9.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 33 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | RR | 29.4 / inside our 90% range: 39.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 104 / inside our 90% range: 125 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 26.7 / inside our 50% range: 29.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 94 / inside our 50% range: 98 |
| George Hewett | INT | 25.7 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 96 / inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 25.7 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 99 / inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Oliver Florent | INT | 23.5 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 22.3 / inside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFL | 20.8 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 83 / outside our 90% range: 43 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 20.3 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 86 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 19.2 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Nick Haynes | HBFR | 18.0 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.8 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 83 / inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 16.4 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 1.3 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Oliver Hollands | BPR | 16.1 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 15.1 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 14.8 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.6 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 13.2 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 12.5 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 12.3 / outside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 59 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 10.7 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Brodie Kemp | INT | 10.2 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 81 |