AFL · WILDCARD FINALS · MCG
Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 2
MEL to win, 52% chance
MEL 52%48% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 19
MISS Actual margin 19 · 20.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 25.7 | 21.9 to 29.6 | 16.1 to 35.4 | 97% | 84% | 56% | 23% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 23.8 | 20.1 to 27.5 | 14.5 to 33.1 | 94% | 74% | 38% | 11% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 23.2 | 19.5 to 26.8 | 14.0 to 32.4 | 93% | 70% | 34% | 9% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 22.8 | 19.2 to 26.4 | 13.7 to 31.9 | 92% | 68% | 30% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 22.1 | 18.5 to 25.7 | 13.1 to 31.1 | 91% | 66% | 31% | 8% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jack Viney | C | 21.7 | 18.2 to 25.3 | 12.8 to 30.7 | 90% | 64% | 30% | 6% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 21.5 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.4 | 90% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.2 | 12.0 to 29.5 | 86% | 57% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 20.0 | 16.5 to 23.4 | 11.3 to 28.6 | 83% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HBFR | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.2 to 26.8 | 75% | 36% | 9% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.4 to 24.2 | 64% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.8 to 23.1 | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | WL | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.5 to 22.7 | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.4 to 22.6 | 50% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.2 to 22.2 | 47% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | INT | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.0 to 21.9 | 49% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPL | 13.1 | 10.3 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.6 to 19.7 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FF | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.7 to 18.2 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.9 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Xavier Taylor | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.5 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jake Melksham | CHF | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | RR | 29.4 | 25.3 to 33.4 | 19.1 to 39.6 | 98% | 94% | 79% | 46% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 26.7 | 22.8 to 30.6 | 16.9 to 36.5 | 97% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 25.7 | 21.9 to 29.5 | 16.0 to 35.4 | 97% | 84% | 56% | 23% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 25.7 | 21.9 to 29.5 | 16.1 to 35.4 | 97% | 84% | 56% | 23% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Oliver Florent | INT | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.1 | 14.2 to 32.7 | 93% | 71% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 22.3 | 18.7 to 25.9 | 13.2 to 31.4 | 91% | 67% | 32% | 9% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFL | 20.8 | 17.3 to 24.3 | 12.0 to 29.6 | 87% | 58% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 20.3 | 16.8 to 23.7 | 11.6 to 29.0 | 85% | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 19.2 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 10.8 to 27.7 | 80% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Nick Haynes | HBFR | 18.0 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 9.8 to 26.3 | 73% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 16.4 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.5 to 24.2 | 65% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | BPR | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.3 to 23.9 | 62% | 26% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.5 to 22.7 | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.2 to 22.3 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.6 | 10.8 to 16.5 | 6.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.4 | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.4 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.2 | 23% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 19.0 | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.1 to 17.2 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.8 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | INT | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.7 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |