AFL · WILDCARD FINALS · MCG
Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 2
MEL to win, 52% chance
MEL 52%48% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 19
MISS Actual margin 19 · 20.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 146 | 93% | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 85% | 71% | 56% | 36% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 92 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 130 | 84% | 70% | 54% | 34% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 91 | 76 to 106 | 54 to 129 | 81% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Jack Viney | C | 91 | 76 to 106 | 53 to 128 | 80% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 79% | 62% | 43% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 55% | 34% | 20% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 49% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Ed Langdon | HBFR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 47% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 70 | 56 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 34 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 69 | 55 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FF | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 41% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 65 | 52 to 78 | 32 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 64 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 36% | 22% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Caleb Windsor | WL | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 26 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 20 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 90 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Xavier Lindsay | INT | 52 | 40 to 65 | 21 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Jake Melksham | CHF | 51 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 82 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 78 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Xavier Taylor | INT | 45 | 33 to 57 | 15 to 75 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | RR | 104 | 89 to 120 | 65 to 144 | 93% | 86% | 74% | 59% | 41% | inside our 90% range: 125 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 99 | 84 to 115 | 60 to 138 | 89% | 79% | 66% | 51% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| George Hewett | INT | 96 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 58% | 40% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 94 | 78 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 71% | 56% | 36% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 79% | 66% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Oliver Florent | INT | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 126 | 80% | 64% | 43% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 86 | 71 to 100 | 49 to 122 | 76% | 58% | 40% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Nick Haynes | HBFR | 83 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 72% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFL | 83 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 43 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 66% | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 79 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 50% | 32% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 77 | 63 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 61% | 41% | 25% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Oliver Hollands | BPR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 53% | 34% | 20% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 49% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 104 | 46% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 70 | 56 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 46% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 41% | 23% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Brodie Kemp | INT | 62 | 49 to 75 | 29 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 62 | 49 to 75 | 29 to 95 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 27 to 92 | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 58 | 45 to 70 | 25 to 90 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 54 | 42 to 67 | 23 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |