AFL · WILDCARD FINALS · MCG
Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 2
MEL to win, 52% chance
MEL 52%48% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 19
MISS Actual margin 19 · 20.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayley Fritsch | FF | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.0 | 0.1 to 4.3 | 87% | 67% | 43% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Melksham | CHF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 78% | 58% | 33% | 18% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 70% | 43% | 18% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 67% | 34% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 67% | 34% | 18% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 64% | 34% | 18% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 73% | 38% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HBFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 49% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 50% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | WL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 32% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 33% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Taylor | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 32% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Viney | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 34% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 31% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 78% | 52% | 32% | 17% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | INT | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 80% | 59% | 34% | 14% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 73% | 50% | 20% | 11% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 72% | 44% | 19% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 73% | 44% | 21% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 78% | 50% | 26% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 44% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 58% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 49% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 59% | 27% | 7% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 59% | 27% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 48% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 32% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 43% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 50% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | BPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 27% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |