AFL · WILDCARD FINALS · MCG
Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 2
MEL to win, 52% chance
MEL 52%48% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 19
MISS Actual margin 19 · 20.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Turner | FB | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 10.1 | 82% | 71% | 56% | 42% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 33% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 72% | 58% | 49% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 68% | 52% | 37% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 8.1 | 63% | 43% | 30% | 19% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HBFR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 66% | 49% | 32% | 17% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 56% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 52% | 36% | 25% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.3 to 7.5 | 52% | 37% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Melksham | CHF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 37% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Xavier Taylor | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 43% | 27% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Viney | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 35% | 17% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | WL | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Haynes | HBFR | 6.8 | 4.7 to 8.8 | 2.0 to 11.5 | 85% | 79% | 66% | 52% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 11.0 | 85% | 73% | 64% | 49% | 37% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 10.0 | 82% | 68% | 52% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.2 to 9.7 | 75% | 62% | 49% | 32% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 68% | 55% | 37% | 27% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 71% | 63% | 49% | 34% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.2 | 72% | 64% | 49% | 35% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.8 | 68% | 52% | 42% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.8 | 68% | 52% | 37% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Florent | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 68% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | BPR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.7 to 8.6 | 68% | 53% | 40% | 27% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.3 | 66% | 49% | 33% | 21% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 8.0 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 21% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 8.0 | 66% | 51% | 34% | 22% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 8.0 | 63% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 45% | 30% | 21% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Walsh | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 49% | 32% | 23% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 7.0 | 49% | 35% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.9 | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 35% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 39% | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 37% | 19% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 19% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |