AFL · WILDCARD FINALS · MCG
Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 2
MEL to win, 52% chance
MEL 52%48% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 19
MISS Actual margin 19 · 20.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Viney | C | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.5 | 2.3 to 10.8 | 93% | 86% | 77% | 61% | 47% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.6 | 91% | 79% | 62% | 50% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.5 to 9.1 | 86% | 77% | 57% | 41% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.9 to 7.8 | 64% | 52% | 38% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 69% | 51% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 69% | 52% | 36% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 35% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 35% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 30% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 37% | 22% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 28% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Xavier Taylor | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 22% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Melksham | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 79% | 61% | 45% | 32% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 62% | 43% | 30% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Walsh | RR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 62% | 43% | 30% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 41% | 27% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | BPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 41% | 24% | 15% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 35% | 22% | 13% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 36% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Florent | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 32% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 30% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 21% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 22% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 22% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Haynes | HBFR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |