AFL · WILDCARD FINALS · MCG
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
Fri 28 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 14
COL to win, 69% chance
WB 31%69% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 17.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 28.1 | 24.1 to 32.0 | 18.0 to 38.1 | 98% | 91% | 71% | 38% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 27.9 | 24.0 to 31.9 | 17.9 to 38.0 | 98% | 91% | 71% | 38% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | FF | 24.9 | 21.1 to 28.6 | 15.3 to 34.4 | 95% | 82% | 51% | 17% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 23.4 | 19.7 to 27.0 | 14.1 to 32.6 | 93% | 71% | 36% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 21.8 | 18.2 to 25.3 | 12.8 to 30.7 | 90% | 64% | 30% | 7% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.6 | 12.3 to 29.9 | 87% | 60% | 23% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.9 to 29.4 | 86% | 56% | 21% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Bailey Williams | BPR | 20.5 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 11.8 to 29.2 | 86% | 55% | 20% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.5 to 24.2 | 64% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Connor Budarick | INT | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.4 to 24.1 | 62% | 27% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 7.8 to 23.2 | 55% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.2 to 22.2 | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.1 to 22.1 | 45% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.5 to 21.2 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.5 to 19.5 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 12.2 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.1 | 22% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 12.2 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Rory Lobb | FPR | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.1 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.2 to 19.0 | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | CHF | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.1 to 17.2 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | C | 31.8 | 27.6 to 36.1 | 21.2 to 42.5 | 99% | 97% | 87% | 63% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 28.0 | 24.0 to 32.0 | 17.9 to 38.0 | 98% | 91% | 71% | 38% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 24.7 | 20.9 to 28.4 | 15.2 to 34.1 | 95% | 82% | 50% | 16% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 21.5 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.4 | 90% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Swadling | HBFL | 21.5 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.4 | 90% | 63% | 25% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 20.3 | 16.8 to 23.7 | 11.6 to 28.9 | 85% | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.5 | 11.5 to 28.7 | 84% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.8 | 10.9 to 27.9 | 82% | 46% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.7 | 10.8 to 27.8 | 81% | 44% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.1 to 26.7 | 74% | 35% | 9% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 9.9 to 26.4 | 75% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 16.8 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.8 to 24.7 | 64% | 27% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | BPL | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.7 to 24.6 | 63% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 16.6 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.7 to 24.6 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.5 | 8.5 to 24.3 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | FF | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.1 to 20.5 | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 19.0 | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.4 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.3 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| William Hayes | HFFL | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.1 | 2.1 to 13.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |