AFL · WILDCARD FINALS · MCG
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
Fri 28 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 14
COL to win, 69% chance
WB 31%69% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 17.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 106 | 90 to 121 | 66 to 145 | 93% | 87% | 76% | 60% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Ed Richards | R | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 143 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 58% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | FF | 96 | 81 to 111 | 58 to 134 | 88% | 76% | 59% | 41% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 111 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 79% | 66% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 122 |
| Tim English | RK | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 78% | 64% | 46% | 28% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 86 | 72 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 78% | 59% | 41% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 81 | 66 to 95 | 45 to 117 | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Bailey Williams | BPR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 57% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 103 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Rory Lobb | FPR | 68 | 54 to 81 | 34 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 16% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 67 | 53 to 80 | 33 to 101 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Aaron Naughton | CHF | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 41% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 65 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 99 | 41% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 37% | 23% | 12% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 16 |
| Connor Budarick | INT | 64 | 51 to 77 | 31 to 98 | 36% | 22% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 62 | 49 to 75 | 29 to 95 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 92 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 56 | 43 to 68 | 24 to 87 | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 55 | 42 to 67 | 23 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 54 | 42 to 67 | 23 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 42 | 31 to 54 | 13 to 72 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | C | 113 | 97 to 129 | 72 to 154 | 96% | 92% | 84% | 71% | 56% | inside our 50% range: 115 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 103 | 88 to 119 | 64 to 143 | 92% | 85% | 72% | 57% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 102 | 86 to 117 | 62 to 141 | 92% | 83% | 70% | 54% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 132 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 94 | 79 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 86% | 73% | 57% | 37% | 23% | outside our 90% range: 51 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 127 | 78% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Sam Swadling | HBFL | 85 | 71 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 76% | 58% | 40% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Ned Long | RR | 83 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 66% | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 77 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 77 | 63 to 91 | 42 to 113 | 61% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Isaac Quaynor | BPL | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Lachie Schultz | FF | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 71 | 58 to 85 | 37 to 106 | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 42% | 26% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 67 | 53 to 80 | 33 to 100 | 41% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 22% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 56 | 44 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 21% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 22 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| William Hayes | HFFL | 52 | 40 to 64 | 21 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 47 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 78 | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |