AFL · WILDCARD FINALS · MCG
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
Fri 28 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 14
COL to win, 69% chance
WB 31%69% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 17.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | CHF | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.3 | 89% | 67% | 43% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 71% | 44% | 19% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 73% | 44% | 20% | 7% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 59% | 32% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 39% | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | FPR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 63% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 63% | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 34% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 37% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 58% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 32% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 32% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 44% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 19% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Budarick | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Schultz | FF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 82% | 63% | 34% | 15% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 87% | 64% | 34% | 16% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 1.5 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 80% | 58% | 26% | 11% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 72% | 44% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 66% | 38% | 18% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 58% | 31% | 15% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| William Hayes | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 58% | 27% | 11% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Daicos | C | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 72% | 38% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 52% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 58% | 26% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 38% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 50% | 21% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 59% | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 32% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Swadling | HBFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |