AFL · WILDCARD FINALS · MCG
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
Fri 28 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 14
COL to win, 69% chance
WB 31%69% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 17.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buku Khamis | FB | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 9.1 | 68% | 56% | 43% | 31% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 9.0 | 66% | 52% | 37% | 24% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | CHF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 72% | 61% | 45% | 29% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Williams | BPR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.5 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.6 to 8.4 | 68% | 51% | 37% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 8.0 | 60% | 45% | 29% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | FF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.4 to 7.8 | 54% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 66% | 49% | 30% | 17% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Budarick | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 52% | 36% | 25% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.5 | 62% | 40% | 27% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rory Lobb | FPR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.9 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 49% | 27% | 20% | 9% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 45% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 51% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 49% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 24% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.3 to 9.9 | 79% | 68% | 52% | 37% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | BPL | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 68% | 58% | 45% | 33% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 75% | 59% | 49% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 72% | 58% | 49% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 73% | 63% | 45% | 29% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.5 | 66% | 49% | 35% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 8.0 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Swadling | HBFL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 8.0 | 62% | 49% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 55% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.3 to 7.5 | 52% | 37% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 49% | 33% | 24% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 7.0 | 52% | 37% | 24% | 13% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 7.0 | 49% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | FF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 49% | 29% | 20% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 37% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Daicos | C | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 49% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 21% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 33% | 16% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 22% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| William Hayes | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 27% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 24% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |