AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 23
ADE to win, 79% chance
ADE 79%21% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 22
HIT Actual margin 22 · 1.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 27.0 | 23.1 to 30.9 | 17.1 to 36.9 | 98% | 90% | 65% | 32% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 26.1 | 22.2 to 29.9 | 16.3 to 35.8 | 98% | 86% | 60% | 26% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 24.3 | 20.5 to 28.0 | 14.8 to 33.7 | 95% | 81% | 47% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 22.6 | 18.9 to 26.2 | 13.4 to 31.7 | 91% | 67% | 34% | 11% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 22.3 | 18.7 to 26.0 | 13.3 to 31.4 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.9 | 10.9 to 28.0 | 81% | 44% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.5 to 27.4 | 81% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.6 | 9.3 to 25.5 | 71% | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.0 to 25.1 | 67% | 28% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | R | 16.7 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.8 to 24.7 | 64% | 27% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 16.4 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.5 to 24.3 | 58% | 23% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.0 to 23.6 | 57% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.6 | 7.8 to 23.2 | 55% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 6.9 to 21.8 | 48% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.6 to 21.3 | 40% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | INT | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.4 | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | FPR | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.6 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.3 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.9 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.4 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Richards | R | 26.1 | 22.2 to 30.0 | 16.4 to 35.9 | 98% | 86% | 60% | 26% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 25.4 | 21.6 to 29.2 | 15.8 to 35.0 | 97% | 83% | 55% | 23% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | RR | 25.1 | 21.3 to 29.0 | 15.5 to 34.7 | 96% | 84% | 53% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 21.7 | 18.2 to 25.3 | 12.8 to 30.7 | 89% | 63% | 30% | 7% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.2 | 12.0 to 29.5 | 86% | 56% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Bailey Williams | BPR | 19.2 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 10.8 to 27.7 | 79% | 41% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 18.7 | 15.4 to 22.0 | 10.3 to 27.1 | 78% | 41% | 11% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.2 to 23.8 | 59% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.8 to 23.2 | 54% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Connor Budarick | INT | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.1 to 22.2 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 14.0 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.7 to 21.4 | 42% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.4 to 20.9 | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.5 to 19.5 | 31% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Will Lewis | INT | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.4 | 2.3 to 13.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 7.5 | 5.3 to 9.7 | 1.9 to 13.1 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |